INSTITUTIONAL AND POLICY FRAMEWORKS UNDERPINNING IGAD CLIMATE DIPLOMACY AND THE MANAGEMENT OF CLIMATE-INDUCED CONFLICTS IN THE HORN OF AFRICA
Abstract
Purpose of the Study: To examine how IGAD’s institutional and policy frameworks support climate diplomacy and the management of climate-induced conflicts in the Horn of Africa.
Statement of the Problem: Despite established regional climate-security frameworks, gaps remain in translating early warning, policy commitments, and regional coordination into effective local conflict-management action.
Methods: The study used a mixed methods design in Kenya and Somalia. Quantitative data were collected from 176 respondents, while qualitative data were obtained through interviews, focus groups, observation, and document analysis.
Results: Most respondents recognized IGAD’s early-warning systems, policy frameworks, dialogue structures, cross-border cooperation, and institutional responsiveness. However, only 26.14% found early-warning information useful for local planning and 11.93% considered climate security adequately integrated into regional peace and security. Institutional and policy frameworks significantly predicted conflict-management outcomes, R² = .317, β = .563, p < .001.
Conclusion: IGAD has a strong regional institutional architecture, but its effectiveness is weakened by limited localization, weak early warning-to-action linkages, and inadequate climate-security integration.
Recommendation: IGAD should strengthen local implementation, early action mechanisms, institutional coordination, and integration of climate security into regional peace and security planning.
Keywords: IGAD, climate diplomacy, climate security, institutional frameworks, policy frameworks, early warning, climate-induced conflict, Horn of Africa
References
Aeby, M. (2023). CEWARN’s strategy framework and civil society partnership: Lessons for early-warning and response systems. Conflict Trends, 2023(2).
Aeby, M. (2024). High expectations: Civil society participation in conflict early warning and response systems of the AU, ECOWAS and IGAD. South African Journal of International Affairs, 31(2), 167–190. https://doi.org/10.1080/10220461.2024.2385935
African Union. (2022). African Union climate change and resilient development strategy and action plan (2022–2032). African Union Commission.
Braun, V., & Clarke, V. (2006). Using thematic analysis in psychology. Qualitative Research in Psychology, 3(2), 77–101. https://doi.org/10.1191/1478088706qp063oa
Creswell, J. W., & Plano Clark, V. L. (2018). Designing and conducting mixed methods research (3rd ed.). Sage.
Derbyshire, S. F., Banerjee, R. R., Mohamed, T. S., & Roba, G. M. (2024). Uncertainty, pastoral knowledge and early warning: A review of drought management in the drylands, with insights from northern Kenya. Pastoralism: Research, Policy and Practice, 14, 13006. https://doi.org/10.3389/past.2024.13006
Hassan, R., Stites, E., & Howe, P. (2024). Pastoralists’ perspectives on early warning, anticipatory action, and emergency response. Feinstein International Center, Tufts University.
IGAD Climate Prediction and Applications Centre. (2022a). Report on state of climate, peace and security in the Horn of Africa. Intergovernmental Authority on Development.
IGAD Climate Prediction and Applications Centre. (2022b). IGAD regional climate change strategy and action plan (2023–2030). Intergovernmental Authority on Development.
IGAD Climate Prediction and Applications Centre. (2024). IGAD regional roadmap for anticipatory action. Intergovernmental Authority on Development.
IGAD Climate Prediction and Applications Centre. (2026, April 24). Joint communiqué on climate, peace and security in the Horn of Africa. Intergovernmental Authority on Development.
IGAD Council of Ministers. (2022, December 1). Communiqué of the 48th Ordinary Session of the IGAD Council of Ministers. Intergovernmental Authority on Development.
Intergovernmental Authority on Development. (n.d.). IGAD’s Conflict Early Warning and Response Mechanism (CEWARN). IGAD.
Intergovernmental Authority on Development. (2021). IGAD protocol on transhumance. IGAD Centre for Pastoral Areas and Livestock Development.
Intergovernmental Authority on Development. (2023). The IGAD climate adaptation strategy (2023–2030). IGAD.
Intergovernmental Authority on Development. (2024). Kenya signs the IGAD free movement of persons protocol. IGAD.
Intergovernmental Authority on Development, & African Development Bank. (2026, June 17). IGAD and African Development Bank officially launch SECURES-IGAD project to strengthen early warning and crisis prevention in the Horn of Africa.
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. (2022). Climate change 2022: Impacts, adaptation and vulnerability. Cambridge University Press.
Johnson, M. F., Rodríguez, L. A., & Quijano Hoyos, M. (2021). Intrastate environmental peacebuilding: A review of the literature. World Development, 137, 105150.
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.worlddev.2020.105150
Keohane, R. O. (1984). After hegemony: Cooperation and discord in the world political economy. Princeton University Press.
Keohane, R. O., & Martin, L. L. (1995). The promise of institutionalist theory. International Security, 20(1), 39–51. https://doi.org/10.2307/2539214
Krampe, F., Hegazi, F., & VanDeveer, S. D. (2021). Sustaining peace through better resource governance: Three potential mechanisms for environmental peacebuilding. World Development, 144, 105508. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.worlddev.2021.105508
Musau, B. M. (2021). The Intergovernmental Authority on Development’s (IGAD’s) Protocol on Transhumance and the need for an IGAD common policy on disarmament of pastoralists. Journal of Conflict Management and Sustainable Development, 6(2), 99–116.
Sändig, J., Dalmer, N., Ide, T., & Vogler, A. (2024). From climate conflicts to environmental peacebuilding: Exploring local dimensions. Environment and Security, 2(1), 3–20. https://doi.org/10.1177/27538796241231090
Sulieman, H. M., Babekir, A., & Ahmed, A. M. (2024). Pastoralist mobility along the Sudanese Ethiopian borderland: Towards cooperative land management. Nomadic Peoples, 28, 19–40. https://doi.org/10.3828/whpnp.63837646691042
Tavakol, M., & Dennick, R. (2011). Making sense of Cronbach’s alpha. International Journal of Medical Education, 2, 53–55. https://doi.org/10.5116/ijme.4dfb.8dfd
United Nations Climate Security Mechanism. (2024). 2023 progress report. United Nations Multi-Partner Trust Fund Office.
Yamane, T. (1967). Statistics: An introductory analysis (2nd ed.). Harper & Row.
